The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 64.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 71.4%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.8 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.4% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.6 percentage points higher.