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Jerome model: Trump with very clear lead in Utah


The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, while Trump will end up with 64.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 71.4%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.8 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.4% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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