Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in West Virginia

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.0% for Clinton and 54.0% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 60.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.4 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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