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Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in South Carolina

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in South Carolina has Trump at 55.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 2.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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