Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in North Dakota

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will win 55.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota has Trump at 59.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.7 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 4.0 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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