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Jerome model: Trump in New Hampshire trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Hampshire econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.7% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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