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Jerome model: Trump in Delaware trails by a moderate margin

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Delaware.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 55.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Delaware. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.2% in Delaware. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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