Jerome model: Trump in Connecticut trails by a moderate margin
The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.6% in Connecticut. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.