The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 46.7%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 56.6%. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in California. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.