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Jerome model: Trump in California trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 53.3% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 56.6%. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in California. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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