Jerome model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Vermont.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Vermont econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.7% of the two-party vote in Vermont, which is 6.5 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points higher.