Jerome model in Rhode Island: Clinton with very clear lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 61.7% of the two-party vote share in Rhode Island, while Trump will win 38.3%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Rhode Island econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.9%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.0% in Rhode Island. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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