The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 51.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 0.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.