Jerome model in Oregon: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will end up with 45.8%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 1.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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