The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 52.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 53.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.1% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.