Jerome model in New York: Clinton with clear lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 58.9% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will end up with 41.1%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 6.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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