Jerome model in Missouri: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will win 52.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Missouri sees Trump at 55.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.7% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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