The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Michigan.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Michigan has Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.1 percentage points higher.