Jerome model in Massachusetts: Clinton with very clear lead
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will win 38.4%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 62.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.6% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.