Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 60.8% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will win 39.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.5 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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