The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.