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Jerome model in Arkansas: Trump with small lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 58.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Arkansas, which is 5.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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