The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 57.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points better.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.2 percentage points higher.