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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Colorado


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado.

Historically, Colorado has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 52.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.1% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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