Jerome model: Clinton with clear lead in New Jersey
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 57.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will win 42.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 57.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.7 percentage points higher.