Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead
By The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 89.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 34.4 percentage points higher.
