Jerome model: Clinton in Wyoming trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.3% for Clinton and 67.7% for Trump in Wyoming.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 71.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Wyoming. This value is 3.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 70.8% of the two-party vote in Wyoming, which is 3.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 19.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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