Jerome model: Clinton in Virginia trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia.

In Virginia, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Virginia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.1% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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