The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will end up with 53.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 57.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Texas. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.