Jerome model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a small margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, whereas Trump will win 52.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Tennessee econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.8%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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