Jerome model: Clinton in Mississippi trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.8% for Trump in Mississippi.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 56.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Mississippi. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results were accurately predicted by the forecast from PollyVote for Mississippi. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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