Jerome model: Clinton in Kentucky trails by a small margin
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Kentucky.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky has Trump at 58.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 7.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.