Jerome model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will garner 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will end up with 56.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Indiana. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 1.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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