Jerome model: Clinton in Alaska trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.9% for Clinton and 69.1% for Trump in Alaska.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 64.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Alaska. This value is 4.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Alaska, which is 8.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 21.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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