The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump in Alabama.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Alabama has Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.4 percentage points higher.