The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 45.7%.
In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Iowa sees Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.