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Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 45.7%.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa sees Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.4% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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