Idaho: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 32.1% for Clinton and 67.9% for Trump in Idaho.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 68.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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