The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 32.1% for Clinton and 67.9% for Trump in Idaho.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 68.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.9 percentage points higher.