The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 64.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 9.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.1 percentage points higher.