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Hawaii: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton and 41.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 64.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Hawaii. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 9.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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