FOX 5 Atlanta published the results of a new poll on August 1. In this poll, participants from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX 5 Atlanta poll results
The results show that 41.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 15 to May 15 with 587 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Trump at 52.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the FOX 5 Atlanta poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.