Florida: New JMC Analytics poll shows Trump with 5 points lead
On August 1, JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 10 with 700 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 2.5 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.