Florida: Clinton tied with Trump in new Gravis poll
By Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular importance.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 49.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from June 27 to June 28. A total of 1619 registered voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.2 percentage points.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.7% and Trump 50.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points more and Trump has 0.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.
