DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Texas
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton and 60.9% for Trump in Texas.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Texas sees Trump at 57.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points lower.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.9 percentage points higher.