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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Oklahoma

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.0% for Clinton and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 63.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 65.2% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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