The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 30.0% for Clinton and 70.0% for Trump in Oklahoma.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 63.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 65.2% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.0 percentage points higher.