DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Nebraska

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 35.9% of the two-party vote share in Nebraska, whereas Trump will win 64.1%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nebraska has Trump at 61.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 16.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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