DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in South Carolina

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 42.0% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, while Trump will win 58.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 55.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 2.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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