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DeSart model: Trump trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 91.9% for Clinton and 8.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 89.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 90.3% of the two-party vote, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 39.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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