DeSart model: Trump in Michigan trails by a small margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump in Michigan.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Michigan. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points better.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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