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DeSart model: Trump in Connecticut trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.6% for Clinton and 43.4% for Trump in Connecticut.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.0%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.6% in Connecticut. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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