DeSart model in Utah: Trump with very clear lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 21.8% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will end up with 78.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Utah has Trump at 71.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in Utah, which is 16.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 30.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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