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DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 53.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.1% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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