DeSart model in New Mexico: Clinton with small lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 53.0% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will win 47.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 52.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 0.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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