DeSart model in Maryland: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 38.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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